On the Brink
What Europe's First Major Conflict Since 1945 Might Look Like
It’s likely you are aware that something is going on in Ukraine, even if you aren’t fully certain just exactly what is happening. Long story short, social media has lit up in the last few days with countless TikTok and Twitter videos of convoys, tanks, military trains, warships, and fighter jets moving from all corners of Russia into Belarus, the Rostov region of Russia, and Crimea. Effectively this is a massive military build up on the three Russian-”controlled” borders with Ukraine. Officials from Europe, the U.S., Russia, and the North Atlantic Treaty Association (NATO, the major military alliance between the US, Canada and much of Europe since the days of the Cold War) have been in negotiations over how to deescalate the situation and prevent a Russian invasion. In the meantime, the media (both traditional and social) has scrambled to figure out just what is happening and answer the questions “why and why now”?
So, let’s talk Ukraine and what you all can expect if the situation goes sideways because there will absolutely be impacts here in the U.S. and overseas even if they aren't *gestures towards nuclear hellfire*.
The Build Up and the Players
There are two central characters at play here: Russian President Vladimir Putin (you’ve probably heard of him) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (you probably haven’t).
Vladimir Putin has effectively been in control of Russia for about 25 years now. He does not need much introduction save for his longtime stance of trying to maintain Russia as a great power in world geopolitics. He furiously guards the longtime Russian “sphere of influence” which includes Belarus, Central Asia, and Ukraine. He is suspicious of NATO and does not want Russia surrounded on all sides by western-aligned states which is a key facto for his 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, and offering and even deployment of Russian personnel to assist allied leaders in Belarus and Kazakhstan amidst protests.
Zelensky has been the president of Ukraine since 2019. He is a former actor and comedian who created and starred into a wildly popular comedy called “Servant of the People” where he played the President of Ukraine from 2015 to 2019. He is a populist who opposes the historic corruption of Ukraine, Russian interference in Ukrainian politics, and wants to change the mood and atmosphere in the post-Soviet country that has long swung between sympathies for the west and its historic ties to Moscow. His story and stances warrant a much longer rundown but, in short, he is a populist who sympathizes with the west, whose story begins in post-Soviet Ukraine, is emblematic of many Ukrainians’ thoughts after the Russia invasions of 2014, and is a strange cross between Jon Stewart (as a political comedian) and Martin Sheen (as an actor portraying an idealized version of a politician) if they actually pursued, and won, the presidency.
This split between a reformist Ukraine led by an independent-minded president and Putin is the core conflict. Russia considers keeping Ukraine out of NATO and within its sphere as a paramount strategic importance. And he is correct from a military perspective. Ukraine in NATO means western forces would, at any given time, be about 500 miles from Moscow and have immediate missile and air force ranges covering much of western Russia. It would be the equivalent of Russia signing a military alliance with Mexico and having the ability to put troops, jets and missiles in Sonora, Chihuahua and Matamoros.
We should also note the historic connection between the two countries. The Kievan Rus’ which existed from the 9th to 13th centuries is the historic ancestor of Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Ukraine was the breadbasket and one of the critical territories of the tsarist Russian Empire for centuries. And Russia and Ukraine were linked within the Soviet Union until 1991 when they became two separate countries.
Interestingly, much of the current pro-western outlook in Ukraine can be attributed to Russia’s own actions over the last 20 years. Like post-Soviet Belarus, for many years after the fall of the USSR, Russia supported sympathetic administrations that kept Ukraine aligned with Moscow even if they were wildly corrupt and did little to help the average Ukrainian. This led to the 2004 Orange Revolution where massive public protests arose in response to a blatantly fixed presidential election designed to favor Viktor Yanukovych. The protesters succeeded and the Ukrainian Supreme Court annulled the vote and ordered a revote, in which the opponent Viktor Yushchenko (similar name but different person) won. This led to wide ranging reforms including the 2004 changes to the Constitution where many presidential powers were transferred to the Ukrainian parliament.
In a fascinating twist, after Yushchenko’s presidency, Viktor Yanukovych then returned to win the 2010 presidential election under fair circumstances. He spent four years walking back Ukrainian policies that were favorable towards the European Union, reversed the pro-parliament constitutional amendments, and tended to favor Russia in his foreign policy. There is a lot more to his presidency but it came to an end in a similar manner to 2004 when, in February 2014, the Euromaidan clashes which centered on Kyiv’s Independence Square, resulted in his ouster. Unlike the bloodless Orange Revolution, Euromaidan became a prelude to Ukraine’s future with more than 100 deaths occurring in just a few days. This overthrow led to the restoration of the 2004 amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution, Yanukovych fled to Russia, and an interim government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk that favored the west (even signing an association agreement with the European Union) came to power. Shortly after in a new presidential election Petro Poroshenko won a landslide victory.
Russia, however, considers Euromaidan as a coup instigated by the west. Yanukovych requested military assistance from Russia against the protests which is the possible origination of Russia’s 2014 invasion. This was the invasion that led to the breakaway of Crimea and pro-Russian breakaway states in eastern Ukraine (the Donbas) known as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.
This was the moment that Ukrainian society split into two. Zelensky, Euromaidan, and much of Ukraine oppose Russia, Yanukovych, Putin, and what they view as post-soviet oligarchic corruption and stagnation. Ukrainian territory with many ethnic Russians like Crimea or the Donbas, not to mention those who mistrust the west or have rose colored glasses about the soviet era tend to favor Russia and Putin, to the point of secession. This why for the last eight years there has been low level conflict in the Donbas and direct Russian control over Crimea. Yes, there are strategic concerns at play such as control over population centers and the navy base at Sevastopol (historically Russia’s main navy base on the Black Sea) but the split in the Ukrainian population is what has fueled the conflict.
Where Are We Now?
Russia still controls Crimea, even though much of the rest of the world does not recognize this. And the Crimean economy has suffered accordingly since Ukraine has effectively blockaded the peninsula for obvious reasons. This includes shutting down water from the mainland that has allowed Crimea to support agriculture. Without that resource, Crimea is actually reverting back to its native semi-arid steppe land. The Donbas has been in a state of war for eight years and this perpetual ulcer has impacted the value of this location while effectively guaranteeing that the rest of Ukraine will never support another Yanukovych-esque candidate ever again (not to mention the loss of many pro-Russian voters from Ukrainian elections as they now live in Russian Crimea or semi-independent Donbas). Factor in last year’s massive Belarusian protests against their pro-Putin dictator (Alexander Lukashenko), last week’s Kazakhstan protests against their pro-Putin president (Kassym-Jomart Tokayev), and Zelensky’s flirtations with the EU and NATO; Putin has to feel like he must do something.
And that is why we have seen a huge military build up along Ukraine’s borders with Russia mad about something…
Firstly, I do not believe Putin will invade. I think this was a demonstration of force designed to get some guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO but mostly show Belarus that Russia will support Lukashenko while providing good footage for the state news.
The plan seems to backfiring. The constant social media videos of the build up quick made this an international story. And now we are in a strange game of chicken where the only way to back down is for Putin to withdraw troops. As there is no corresponding NATO build up (because Ukraine is not a NATO member) nor any realistic threat that Ukraine would invade Russia, the only way to deescalate is for Putin to unilaterally do so. To do so without obtaining something from the west or Ukraine or both, well that risks making Putin look weak and would undermine his network of allies in Kazakhstan, Donbas, and Belarus.
This is why we have seen so much gaslighting from Russia this last week. They are trying to paint things as the U.S. being the big bad wolf about something related to NATO and Ukraine.
This despite NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe nearly 20 years ago, making this hardly a timely issue.
This despite Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008 over the prospect of it getting too chummy with the west.
This despite Russia’s literal invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and continued direct support of breakaway forces in the Donbas. Did he not think that wouldn’t push Ukraine towards NATO?
This despite Russia’s demands of NATO being a guarantee that they will not let Ukraine into the alliance, despite that being a question for Ukraine which, again, is a soverign state.
This despite Russia’s demand that NATO no longer conduct military exercises in former Warsaw Pact countries which includes 13 different sovereign NATO countries.
This despite Russia’s support of Belarus’ crackdown on protesters last year.
This despite Russia’s military intervention in Kazakhstan just two weeks ago!
Of course the point has little to do with the narrative, it’s whether or not Putin can find an acceptable solution to get those troops out of there and save face to his oligarch supporters and the populace, many of whom seem to genuinely support his political party United Russia.
I think he will.
I have mentioned the vague term “something” several times. The vagueness of why this situation has arisen right now, not to mention the vagueness of what Russia wants (or rather what they would practically settle for), makes this a complicated situation. However, that vagueness also provides a broad range of possibilities to deescalate the situation. And something does not outweigh the consequences of an invasion. I believe something comes together because Putin and his friends believe in their power, their resource monopolies, their Swiss bank accounts, and the perception that they are rebuilding Russia into a great power. All of those things disappear if Putin pulls a Sadaam Hussein and literally invades and conquers another country.
Yes, but, this is a military standoff and weird stuff happens when the guns get pulled out.
So let's say he goes to war and invades…then what?
The Second (or is this third?) Crimean War
Every modern conflict begins with one goal in mind: establish air superiority. Conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and even Afghanistan all began with that goal. And Russia will have the overwhelming superiority in this theater. I expect a one or two day air war (depending on how effective Ukrainian anti-air operators are) with Russia getting full control over their airspace within 36-72 hours. I also don’t expect much in terms of dog fights or resistance. Any opening salvos will begin with missile exchanges and again Russia has the overwhelming upper hand here. Downing aircraft from the surface or sea, making air bases unusable, and destroying or setting up radar stations will be the priority. Ukraine is not winning this even if punches above its weight and takes out a fair clip of the Russian aircraft operating over their country.
You'll see invasion forces press in pretty quickly after air superiority is obtained, if not shortly after the air war begins and Russia is feeling confident. The many tanks and mechanized forces will pour in, most likely simply following the roadways so that weather isn’t a major factor. Electricity, water, and other utilities will be knocked out pretty quickly. By this point (24-48 hours beyond the start) missiles and special ops teams will have been doing their work on critical Ukrainian infrastructure.
Once ground forces move in, Russia will establish control over the Donbas region almost immediately. They have supporters in the region, it is closest to Russia, and it is the most likely candidate if Russia seeks territorial concessions. The further the forces press into Ukraine the heavier the losses amongst Russians will be, especially amongst Russian tanks. There are two reasons behind this: first, Ukraine’s military is nothing to sneeze at. They will lose this war but they have been in low level conflict for eight years. They are motivated and battle tested. Secondly, they are increasingly well equipped. NATO has been flying military aid and especially anti-tank weapons in for about a week now. Every day Putin waits is another day Ukrainian troops get to practice and equip themselves with effective armaments like NLAWs, Javelins and Stingers. This all said, the numbers and air superiority situation are too great. We should also consider the strategic situation as Ukraine will have to fend off an invasion from three sides: Crimea, Russia and Belarus. Ukraine will be stretched thin quickly.
You'll see fighting retreats with varying levels of disorganization probably around day 2-5 depending on how quickly Russia moves and the effectiveness of their air campaign. I expect Kyiv surrounded somewhere around day 3-7. I doubt Russia would try to gain direct military control over the city and risk the causalities and negative press of an open urban campaign. By this point the world reaction will have been severe and Russia will need to wrap things up ASAP.
I highly doubt Russian forces would cross much beyond the Dnieper River. If they do it will be establish a perimeter around Kyiv and maybe press for the port of Odessa. There is a low chance they could try and link up with pro-Russian separatists in the Transnistria region of Moldova, but I doubt it. There is a big difference between invading one country and invading two. If Russia pushes into Moldova, go buy gasoline in bulk because we will be in world war territory.
I would be shocked if Russian troops push west enough to hit the Slovakian and Hungarian borders. And if there is a place where Ukraine can defeat Russian attacks its in the west and especially in the mountainous part of the country. Any campaign this far west would likely occur 4-5+ days from the initial invasion and at that point we are well within the range where Putin needs to wrap up operations, not further escalate the situation by sending Russian forces onto the edge of Central Europe. Regardless, Russia would not have the forces needed to hold Ukraine, siege Kiev, and press the attack that far away. At least not effectively. I think the whole thing is wrapped in 7-14 days, though like Iraq and Syria the partisan war would just be beginning. And if Zelensky and many Ukrainian politicians flee to the west or set up a government-in-exile, the situation could drag out for months or years.
Here is the wildcard. This would be a major war. There is a good chance the conflict would not be confined to Ukraine, especially given the players at hand. If fighting occurs, Russia will need to put pressure on NATO if it hopes to achieve anything more than being shut out of the world system.
I fully expect cyber warfare, mostly likely in the form of things that disrupt but do not harm life for Americans and Europeans. Think Amazon Web Services (AWS) going down the other week or the Colonial Pipeline being shut down like last year. Tons of disinformation. The trolls and bots will be epic, they sort of already are with their current gaslighting campaign. And it is interesting that Belarusian hackers have already claimed to have performed cyber warfare on the Belarussian rail network in an attempt to slow down the build up.
There is a decent chance that you would see communications disruption between North America and Europe, there is a small Russian fleet scheduled to perform "exercises" off the southwest coast of Ireland next week. It's on its way right now. The ocean between Ireland, France and Britain houses something to the tune of 15 massive trans-Atlantic data cables.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The telecoms and media industry probably don’t think that the Russian fleet currently parked off the coast of Munster has much to do with them. I would ask you to look at this map of transatlantic broadband cables (the red circle is where the fleet is parked). <a href="
28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Interestingly, a cable was very recently cut between Norway and Svalbard, a chain of islands in the Arctic close to Russian naval bases in Karelia. Practice makes perfect?
This speaks nothing of the general economic fallout. The price of crude oil is spiking today and has gone up from around $70/barrel on New Years Day to pushing $90 today. Natural Gas has gone up a ton since last March and has seen a spike as well. This is going to continue and those prices will absolutely jump if fighting breaks out. Sanctions of Russia's natural gas exports alone will cause a huge downstream impact since most of Europe will need to find a way to heat their homes.
This where you can prepare for whatever may lay ahead. Follow traditional disaster planning rules. Keep your vehicle’s gas tank filled up. Have bottled water ready. Make sure your disaster preparation kit (for hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.) is stocked and ready. Withdraw some physical cash. Essentially be ready for disruption, power outages, and gasoline shortages.
I would also expect other price spikes, especially if there are cyber attacks. Look for food prices, lumber prices, other supply chain disruptions to be impactful. You don't have to cut the power or blow up dams to have a domestic political impact. And Putin will need a domestic political impact to put pressure on Biden, Boris Johnson, and other NATO/EU leaders to conclude the situation rapidly.
The political situation at home will play a crucial role in this.
Beyond Ukraine: The Fallout Elsewhere
Naturally, the political climate in the U.S. is garbage. Russian cyber ops have been getting into our systems for years across multiple Administrations but if the U.S. sees cyber warfare it will not unite the Democrats and GOP against Russia, it will likely result in toxic mishmash of opinion. Some republicans will attack Biden for being weak, some will be more direct about Russia, and I bet you will see weird coalitions of progressives and tea party types bleating about foreign adventures and the value of NATO. Lord knows how the media machine will factor in any Trump statements. Unless the news shows video of dead American soldiers killed by Russians, the political will to get involved will be minimal. America is exhausted, disunited, and the specter of a nuclear conflict governs all interactions with Russia. It will be a mess.
The situation isn’t better in Europe. Boris Johnson’s ministry in the UK is beset with scandal and even the Royal Family has taken some black eyes recently so the historical unifier is lacking. Germany has been less than thrilled about the U.S., UK and other NATO members sending military aid and we should note that, for the first time in years, someone other than Angela Merkel is in charge in Berlin. Italy is in the middle of a contentious presidential election that has drawn out over several days for a variety of reasons.
The timing is also poor. We're already dealing with supply chain disruptions and inflation. The pandemic would play a role in any conflict and economic fallout, a sort of ominous presence in the background. There is a lot of buzz that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, but they've been skittish for years now on committing to rate raises. Not to mention the stock exchange has taken a beating recently which, whether you like it or not, does govern many decisions by policymakers. A European war will likely see rates remain low, helping to fuel an underlying cause of inflation. It would certainly keep the stock market volatile.
Lastly, a major conflict in Europe presents a smoke screen elsewhere. With the U.S. and its core allies so focused on Ukraine, you could see noise elsewhere. Keep an eye on Iran, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Northern and Eastern Africa, and North Korea.
For those not paying attention, North Korea launched several missile tests in the last few days and the resumed nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran have taken a strategic pause.
The thing we should be most worried about are some of the statements by China about Taiwan in recent days. Thank God the Olympics are in a few days and based in Beijing, that means countless Chinese officials' focus will on their own event and not across the Taiwan Strait.
Yet, if NATO's focus is elsewhere, or Germany and France continue to waffle in the face of Russian aggression, the west continues to look disunited, and Biden is perceived as being "fine" with Russia taking a big bite out of Ukraine (such as securing a pro-Putin government and formal annexations of Crimea and Donbas or more)...well suddenly retaking Taiwan does not seem so farfetched.
This should be worrying because Taiwan is not Ukraine. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan risks a general war in Asia because nothing would set off alarm bells in Tokyo and Seoul more than that action. You'd also likely see strong reactions from New Delhi, Manila and Hanoi. Washington would also have to save face post-Ukraine. There would be no buffer state involved either and any response would bring U.S. or allied forces into direct contact with Chinese forces. More than Ukraine, the escalation and potential for a spiraling conflict would be much more stark. Not to mention the implosion of the global economy that would follow the immediate uncoupling of the Chinese and American economies, the shutdown of shipping and aviation in Asia and the Pacific, and the loss of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to the world.
Unless the U.S. shrugs off a Chinese invasion which means NATO and the US-Pacific alliances would then be worthless. Geopolitics would be a whole new global ballgame. One where China absolutely looks ascendant and the U.S. looks like a creaky old dinosaur. One where taking and holding territory would be back in vogue without repercussion so long as the conquering country possesses a nuclear deterrent.
May You Live In Interesting Times
Let’s not forget, Putin deployed a massive military build up along the Ukraine border in April of last year. It was a bluff, nothing came to pass. Yet, the possibility of Europe’s first war since World War II underlies the reality that if something happened this could be as big an event as the collapse of the Soviet Union, or 9/11, or the Pandemic. Fortune favors the bold, and maybe Putin will give that saying a nod and see what happens this time around. But fortune also favors the prepared and it’s crucial that we not be bystanders to history. By understanding the players, the risks, the consequences and circumstances you can be in a better position to adapt to a situation that could rapidly change history. Or, if nothing else, you will have some extra water and cash lying around the house.